No One Need Apply

Last week's jobs report confirmed what a lot of people have felt on a gut level, that the various programs and packages which were designed to boost the economy and cut unemployment really aren't working as intended.  The unemployment rate is still very high and there is mention of "structural unemployment," even though this is disputed in the political circles.  Again, one's gut is the guide here -- if the economy has changed in such a way that the current level of unemployment is due to profound changes in the economy, then it's likely that we're seeing the birth of a new social class of permanently unemployed people.  The problem is not simply one of making a few tweaks to tax rates or changing trade policy, but instead a widespread lack of recognition that the economy itself is in such rough waters by now that anyone who falls over the side of the boat is likely lost. 

What is also unwritten is, if the current unemployment crisis is due to a mismatch of jobs and worker skills, do we reach a case where, no matter how good or diverse our skills are, that the jobs simply do not exist any longer?  In other words, if no jobs exist any longer, then everyone is going to be suffering from structural unemployment.  Part of the reason for this is the lack of hiring due to a lack of consumer spending, according to the official line.  Again, a little insight would probably suggest that this is likely to be a cascading cycle, where part of the consumer base reducing spending due to the inability to do anything more than survive leads to more unemployment and less spending by others as well. 

From the perspective of witnessing the arrival of the new Dark Age, this is just one more piece of evidence in the case for collapse.  High unemployment was a serious problem in ancient Rome, where slave labor displaced paid labor, and much time and energy was spent trying to deal with the social problems caused by the large class of the unemployed.  Likewise, as unemployment reaches historically high levels, the resources of the modern governments are going to be stretched even more in an attempt to try to deal with what is going to ultimately be an unsolvable problem -- having too many people and too little work for them.  This leaves national leaders with two unpalatable choices, either going broke in an attempt to provide a social safety net for steadily increasing numbers of unemployed, or face serious social instability as people no longer have even the barest guarantee of any kind of sustenance.

On a personal level, it's truly difficult to talk to a person who has been unemployed for an extended period of time, much like talking to a person who has a terminal disease.  You want to give them some sort of encouragement, a sign of hope, but the simple fact is, there are not many prospects for improving one's employment situation these days.  Even people who have jobs are simply trying to hold onto them and not find themselves out the door as their company downsizes yet again.

Given that the economy is probably not going to fundamentally improve, it's critical that we have some idea of how to deal with the situation on a personal or private basis, as part of our overall efforts to preserve and protect knowledge.  After all, if we're trying to fill our stomachs, then anything else takes a back seat.  I've written a bit (Living Arrangements) about what I think are three likely scenarios for some trends that are will occur due to changing social patterns, part of which will be caused by high unemployment.  However, to avoid being in this position, or suffering unduly from it, we need to plan ahead.

First, it's important that we do not look to our current employer, or even field of work, as being what we are going to be able to count on in the future.  There is simply too much uncertainty by this point to put all our eggs in one basket, be it an individual employer or one skill.  If we lose a paycheck, what then?  Do we have a plan in place or are we going to take unemployment and hope that the government checks don't bounce at some point down the road?

Second, we need to take a serious look at our own lives and determine if there are things we are doing which are wastefully expending resources that we could save for a future crisis.  I'm a big fan of recreation which is free, or costs next to nothing to do, for this reason, and shake my head when people engage in ultra-expensive hobbies such as automotive restoration.  Often, we can combine recreation with something which is also a way of creating a new source of income in a post-collapse world, such as brewing, sewing, building repair, intensive gardening, etc.

Third, we need to plan out a second skill or way of providing at least some income, especially in a society where the dollar (or euro) has ceased to exist.  What skills and goods can be traded without needing to go through some sort of financial system?  It may not provide a great living, but might be enough to either provide some food or fuel, or get a position working for someone who still has some resources.  It goes without saying that people should not necessarily be studying something which requires high technology to work, or a working power grid, or functional economy, etc. 

While we are entering a very rough period of human history, we at least have one thing going for us -- we understand what we are facing and can start readying ourselves for making the inevitable adjustments.  For people who still believe that currencies don't collapse, that empires don't end, the transition to a post-collapse economy will be even more vicious that it has been for those who are already in the limbo of unemployment.  We need to strive to make sure that we are able to provide for ourselves and those around us as we seek to preserve, protect and distribute knowledge.