Monday, February 4, 2013

Robot Road

Many people are familiar, at least in passing with the term "Luddite." For those who aren't, Luddism was essentially a working class insurgency in 19th century Britain, which arose from dissatisfaction over skilled weavers being systematically replaced by unskilled labor using weaving machines. People would wreck machines, threaten factory owners, and even went so far as to battle with elements of the British army that were sent to suppress them. While arguments over the Luddites' motives are still debated, the consensus view generally is that the Luddites were not averse to the introduction of machines, but to the effects of the machines -- lowered wages, the inability to value labor correctly, and the impact it would have on them and their families. In other words, they feared the basic loss of ability to survive. Luddism eventually died out as the introduction of machines made it possible to more fully exploit natural resources and the economy expanded wildly for around two hundred years.

Fast forward to the modern age. There have been a few instances of discontent and grumbling about the replacement of workers in various industries by robots, but this was largely offset by the fact that people were able to find employment in other industries, such as the service industry and the technological fields, which were riding off of the accumulated capital of the last few centuries. Now, that same store of capital is slowly drying up, and the ability of people to be able to find other forms of employment are going with it. In the face of twenty to twenty-five percent real unemployment, the question of what technology has done to the labor force is beginning to be thrown around again.  This article goes into detail about what effects there have been on the labor force as we approach a sort of "mini-singularity" in terms of where we are with automation and human labor. There are some real howlers, such as the notion that everyone should graduate high school by 2020. What for? So they can be educated enough to know why they're never going to find meaningful work or anything but a survival existence? Also brought up is the idea that there should be a guaranteed minimum income for people. How does that work, as well, when we have more debt than all of human civilization's past debts put together? There are also some sobering bits, such as people dipping into their retirement to make ends meet, which is the all-too-familiar story of people clinging to the edge of the cliff by their fingertips.

The late Jane Jacobs, in her book "Dark Age Ahead," went into some detail about the idea of "cultural amnesia." Without going into much detail, the general concept was that we either "used it or losed it" (bad grammer intended) when it came to various skills and ideas. I suspect that it may be a relic of human evolution, where the "old ways" were abandoned, so we didn't waste time doing things that didn't work for us. Consider, for example, that people are suggesting that the medical field may be largely automated at some point. This isn't a crazy notion -- lots of surgery is now being done with remotely-operated machines. However, what happens to the knowledge of the medical profession? Are those ideas slowly lost as times goes on and replaced by "go see the robot." What happens when the robot isn't around? Will the idea of germ theory, for example, die out in a generation?

Where does all of this leave the average person, too? It's increasingly clear that we are going to face a divide at some point -- either be in the part of humanity that services and develops technology, or be a part of humanity that scrambles for what is left, whatever that is. Truck driver? Good luck, with rising fuel costs and the development of reliable robotic vehicles on the horizon. Teacher? Good luck, with increasingly sophisticated educational software being developed. Soldier? Drones and robots are free to train, can be deployed indefinitely, and don't cause problems for politicians by coming home in flag-draped coffins. And, for those who want to start a little niche business, how many cake decorating places, photo studios, and baristas can a largely unemployed populace support, anyway? We are either part of the mechanism of technology or we are going to be displaced by it -- there is no middle ground.

All this comes at a catch, though -- our material resources are running out, in spite of what we're told. Oil is increasingly hard to retrieve. Metals are getting more expensive as the easily-accessible stocks have long since been made into other things, or just plain used up in industrial production. People are trying to exploit the resources in space now, but will that program end before it ever gets off the ground? Are we going to have robots that run on thin air? Are they going to be powered by "cost savings?" The more advanced our production architecture becomes, the more reliant it becomes on the infrastructure to support it. Eventually, we will merge back into one humanity -- those who placed their hopes on robotics and lost out due to thermodynamic realities, and those who were displaced by robotics and just "made do." People will have a new shared interest in trying to find enough to eat and to have a roof over their head.

If nothing else, it begins to remind us that we still need to have one foot in each world -- the world where technology and magic reign, where we still tryi to find work and a means to survive in modern society, and a foot in the world where we accept regressive change, in spite of our optimism and good intentions. If we have a job that can potentially be replaced by technology, we need to understand that we may at some point be permanently out of work and need to plan for that possibility. If we work in a technological field, we probably have more a "cushion," but have to understand that it will not last forever. What replacement skills can we find for ourselves? Most of all, it's time for everyone to try and maintain the collective memory of how things were done before there was technology to make them happen -- how did we heal a broken bone before we had x-rays? How did we plant a field before there was a tractor and industrial fertilizer? As people who understand the party can't go on forever, this is our praxis and we need to remind ourselves of the importance of it, even as our technological civilization plays Icarus with the future.

6 comments:

  1. Thanks for the post sir. It makes my day when I see you have a new post. I enjoy your blogging. Just wondering if you have read or heard of Jared Diamond's latest book, "The World Until Yesterday". I am only beginning the book but he talks about the extreme smallness of pre-contact human worlds. After the crash I think we will winnow ourselves into small bands where our home ranges will be determined by the ability of our areas to produce things we can use. Have a good day.

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    1. I was not aware that he had a new book out, but will pick it up. I don't think it's a coincidence that we generally can know around 150 people, maximum, and that most pre-industrial villages were between 100 to 150 people in size.

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  2. The thing with the 18th and 19th century industrial revolution is that the machines met pent up demand. Someone who might have owned one pair of hand made pants could own several, though less durable, machine made pants at the same price. This meant more pants were produced and sold, more than balancing out the loss of tailer jobs.

    Automation now services already existing demand, instead of meeting unmet demand, so that is why there are no new jobs created. Everyone seems to miss that.

    This would not be a problem and in in fact would be a benefit if employment and income were decoupled, but I think that will be too radical a leap.

    I probably posted this before, but this blog post "Four Futures" does a really good job at laying out the possibilities re automation: http://jacobinmag.com/2011/12/four-futures/

    Also, there is something of a race to see if the peak oil induced collapse happens before either industrial production poisons the planet for humans, or automation technology throws everyone out of work, but its increasingly looking like it will lose the race, in other words we will get the machines taking over and more than enough pollution before industrial progress screeches to a halt. Sort of the worst of all worlds.

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    1. I don't think you posted that blog before, but I will look at it. Heinberg did a pretty good job of touching on the same topic with "The End of Growth." It's really something that a four year old could figure out -- there is no guarantee of continually expanding markets.

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  3. In fact, you answered your own question: "our material resources are running out". Now to build robots and other hardware, we need resources. Technologies are also getting increasingly energy-hungry no matter what we are told. Tech-enabled consumer economy is self-destructive, in a word, and it is grinding to halt even as we speak. Looking at the situation from the inertia of urban environment one can still remain rather complacent, but those who travel away from "civilized" pockets to mines, deposits and farms know that we are past the peak of the curve. Robots look good in movies and media reports, but they have no future. On the other hand, organic life on this planet will continue, and man is part of it. What I see as a serious handicap is that we have unlearned many crafts and trades. How many saddle makers do you have in your neighborhood? How many competent smiths, tailors and stonemasons? Because people are going to need all those skilled hands one day. The new Dark Age is certainly imminent, and every sign is there for all who see. Our human mission now is to get ready and train some personnel before the storm.This is why your Leibowitz Society effort is much appreciated, sir. Thank you for thinking beyond today.

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    1. It's a daunting task. The problem is that we have all the information in the world, but having all that information is contingent on storing and using it -- digital media can record anything of importance on a single portable hard drive, but how do you read it down the road, if it even lasts that long? And, as you point out -- the skills atrophy. They have to be constantly practiced to be really usable.

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