tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post2452318985727484030..comments2023-07-30T08:37:02.307-07:00Comments on The Leibowitz Society: The Hundredth PostLeibowitz Societyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05420328289777540352noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-67650517053048780872012-07-18T10:43:13.864-07:002012-07-18T10:43:13.864-07:00The two forums look similar. One thing I didn'...The two forums look similar. One thing I didn't care for among these is that they tend to favor Peak Oil orthodoxy over other considerations. In other words, if a person doubts Peak Oil, then they're suspect in anything else they say. To me, Peak Oil is an important factor, but not necessarily the only thing that can sink our industrial civilization. <br /><br />The Long Now's approach is interesting. My thinking has always been how to use a purely physical approach, as opposed to a digital approach. My phone, for example, has enough storage space to accomodate basically every important work the human race has produced, as well as quite a few technical volumes. What good will it be without a charge? Or in a few years when the battery goes kaput? Etc. I think it is imperative that we keep our information available and reproducible without any electronic, or even mechanical, need. <br /><br />At this point, I think that deciding what to carry forward is most important, and trying to sort that out is part of the problem. <br /><br />BTW, it looks like LATOC was sold and will be going up soon under new management. Matt Savinar abandoned it to take up horoscopes.Leibowitz Societyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420328289777540352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-83594837290596657952012-07-17T19:38:49.248-07:002012-07-17T19:38:49.248-07:00Unfortunately I missed out on LATOC; was it anythi...Unfortunately I missed out on LATOC; was it anything like TheOilAge.com?<br /><br />The Long Now Foundation has one solution called the Rosetta Disc; it uses CD making techniques to create a visible image with the same passages in multiple languages.<br /><br />I think to a large extent we will carry forward what we think most critical. The rest will fall by the wayside. Heck, I think there is even a small space for celebrities as tragic heroes. Maybe in a thousand years Michael Jackson will stand where Oedipus Rex is today.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-77245847168689344832012-07-17T04:41:47.930-07:002012-07-17T04:41:47.930-07:00Scientism is just religion for atheists, as far as...Scientism is just religion for atheists, as far as I can tell. We're driven to always look for a great existence than ourselves, so we find it either in God or in a collectivization of our own accomplishments. That said, I have always been keenly interested in little-s science and find it sad that we ignore it in favor of celebrities and athletes who contribute absolutely nothing to our civilization. 50 million dollars to throw a ball around is just absurd and a clear sign we've lost our way.<br /><br />It's an easy trap to fall into, discussing the present. However, the very fact that we do so in the way we do -- with little optimism about it -- means that we're already setting one foot down the road on trying to adjust to the future.Leibowitz Societyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420328289777540352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-60301966842670911292012-07-17T04:35:13.649-07:002012-07-17T04:35:13.649-07:00I'm reminded of an episode of the New Twilight...I'm reminded of an episode of the New Twilight Zone set in a post-apocalyptic future where everyone lives in a new Eden of sorts. However, there's one problem -- a spacecraft full of world "leaders" in suspended animation was launched into orbit just before the apocalypse and is now coming back. <br /><br />I think part of the issue we have now is that we, as a species, are not accustomed to understanding or appreciating any kind of limit on our consumption or desire to "increase." People at a buffet, eating 4000 calories at a sitting, are substantively no different from George Soros or someone else making a few more billion just because they can. Capitalists often make the mistake of always conflating wealth with innovation, expansion, or growth, and don't realize it is also sometimes just consumption, but on a scale we can't really imagine. <br /><br />The irony with "living standards" is that people really don't find much satisfaction with their lives in the end. I guess part of it is due to the continual bombardment of the corporate "meme machine," that has spent uncountable sums trying to convince people to buy their crap. But, the funny thing is, the people who live the simplest by choice often seem to be the happiest.Leibowitz Societyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420328289777540352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-19079439089747285112012-07-17T04:25:48.547-07:002012-07-17T04:25:48.547-07:00Exploding birth rates is going to run up against e...Exploding birth rates is going to run up against economic reality at some point. It's getting very expensive to have children (of course, no one notices that this is largely due to increasingly scarce resources). The species is collectively programmed to protect infants, to ensure the survival of the species, and I suppose extending that protection to the unborn is an extention of that as well. I don't have an issue with birth control, though abortion has always made me squeamish (at best) due to the surrounding ethical issues, so I tend to see it as fitting in the same camp as forced euthanasia, etc. However, overrunning birth rates will probably cease to be an issue at some point anyway, as we lose access to modern medicine, etc, and infant mortality begins to rise sharply.<br /><br />I don't take a pessimistic/nihilistic approach to the future overall, though. People are still going to exist, and we aren't necessarily dooming our species in the next generation or two. The question is how far we fall when we do, and what can we do to build an ark of knowledge for people who have just landed at the bottom. Obviously, altruism clashes with self-interest, so I guess it's not a position that is attractive to everyone, but I tend to think of true survival as being a holistic thing, not a singular one.Leibowitz Societyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420328289777540352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-778011290698735352012-07-17T04:15:08.379-07:002012-07-17T04:15:08.379-07:00John,
I actually don't maintain a static page...John,<br /><br />I actually don't maintain a static page for the Leibowitz Society. I've thought of putting up a forum once the discussions and exchange of information hit a critical mass. AFAIK, nothing really took the place of LATOC, and it would be nice to see a replacement for it (even though some people became "fanboy doomers" there). <br /><br />The issue of converting digital to physical media was one I raised early on, and it really applies even to physical media. We have a two-part problem when it comes to information storage -- we have to make sure the physical media can hold up, but that it can also be interpreted and doesn't become as cryptic as the heiroglyphics (although, I suppose the necessity for a Rosetta State in the age of code-breaking supercomputers is up for debate). This is largely why I settled on the idea of the "Codex Universalis" a while back. In other words, everything people down the road would need to know. In a lot of ways, it's the 80 for the 20 -- we think of what we have as core ideas of daily life and the big ideas behind them as being too numerous to count, but they're relatively simple, but often non-obvious. Germ theory is a classic example -- the simple act of handwashing by doctors was enough to drastically cut infection when it was introduced, and the knowledge that micro-organisms can cause disease was a huge leap over bloodletting and all that medieval medical nonsense. <br /><br />Of course, half the battle is defining what we really need to carry forward and what can be discarded. Clearly, celebrity news can be ignored. :)Leibowitz Societyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420328289777540352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-43595347655209647102012-07-16T21:10:53.112-07:002012-07-16T21:10:53.112-07:00I have a static site - Existence that was a role p...I have a static site - Existence that was a role playing game that morphed into a book. There are many buried treasures and the material is linked to both my blog and my journals. http://communities.earthportal.org/Exist/<br /><br />I lost interest in Existence because of a number of issues that had nothing to do with the game at all. I thought we had a group to play by life and everybody else seemed to have their own agenda and were humoring me. I found a game that played the same way run by somebody else = Project Restoration. I have a quest.<br /><br />Bee Well, my friend(s)Dochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11361304171981838568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-11441785533285541432012-07-16T17:40:35.239-07:002012-07-16T17:40:35.239-07:00The only thing that could possibly preserve someth...The only thing that could possibly preserve something resembling an advanced human civilization would be a tremendous decline in birth rates. The birth rate would need to reach a point where natural childbirth would virtually be a lottery system. I'm betting that won't happen due to our extreme pro natalist culture. Promoting unborn babies above all else dooms us as surly as the Norsemen of Greenland were doomed by their ideology. They had a taboo against eating fish in spite of being surrounded by some of the richest fisheries in the world. We have a taboo against abortions and birth control in spite of abortions and pills being safer than commercial fishing! <br /><br />So, we have collectively decided to fail. I say enjoy modern life while you can. Be comforted in the fact that our many modern bodies will make interesting fossils. Some of our parts may someday be examined by more primitive ape like creatures who may collect shiny ipod glass like we once tried finding Native American arrow heads.William McCrackenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13695377314739491744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-25657984733267043462012-07-16T14:45:34.484-07:002012-07-16T14:45:34.484-07:00The strategy for transition, as far as I can tell,...The strategy for transition, as far as I can tell, is to for the elites to plunder both the advanced and developing economies as much as possible, and then to relocate to another planet that still has an abundant supply of fossil fuels.<br /><br />I'm just kidding about the "relocate to another planet" part. But we do seem to be seeing a replay of the behavior of the Soviet elites in the 1990s, now on a global scale. To the extent this is thought out, the idea seems to be to protect the living standards of those who had it best in the late twentieth century, regardless of the effect of the majority of the world's population or future generations. And I don't see how this will wind up doing otherwise then speed up all sorts of bad trends and make them last longer.Ednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-60084791311352491412012-07-16T12:33:22.367-07:002012-07-16T12:33:22.367-07:00Regarding the life cycle of ideas, I think it is i...Regarding the life cycle of ideas, I think it is important to have a record of past ideas, to know what worked, what didn't, and what is truly new. I think no matter what is lost, the scientific method is so valuable that the kind of brain that figured out how to make fire would rediscover it again. (I'm not so confident that would apply were we to become extinct.) Scientism, the faith we have in the results of science, may conversely be entirely unique to our age.<br /><br />I think a good example of this is the steam engine. Hero of Alexandria invented this over 2000 years ago, but at the time, it was basically considered a toy. When Watt rediscovered how to convert heat into motion, society was ready to wholeheartedly embrace the machine.<br /><br />I agree with your particular taste, we need to focus on what we want for the future, only giving as much attention to the current problems as needed to avoid the hazards.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-56417881282889772302012-07-16T11:52:19.776-07:002012-07-16T11:52:19.776-07:00I've been trying to do something similar with ...I've been trying to do something similar with my <a href="http://thelongascent.blogspot.com/p/gaianomicon.html" rel="nofollow">Gaianomicon</a> page. Of course, once the Internet or electrical grid goes down, it won't be much help. Do you have a static page that's similar, or just the blog posts?<br /><br />Quite frankly, I'd say we're already several generations into the decline of modern civilization.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-76049008637591856152012-07-16T11:36:20.144-07:002012-07-16T11:36:20.144-07:00There's a strategy for transition?? The thing...There's a strategy for transition?? The thing that is missed by some people is that they expect Peak Oil and a new Dark Age to be a "leveling" type of event. We hit a reset, everything goes back to The Arcadian or Pastoral state. The notion that anyone would want to hang on to their empires doesn't seem to cross minds. <br /><br />The difference between the past and the future seems to lie in the architecture of each. Whatever happened in the rise and fall of past states, *generally* (I want to emphasize that several times) there were enough resources and carrying capacity to prevent things from getting completely out of hand. I'm not really sure what can be maintained at any point down the road, and what is seen as not being absolutely vital to survival runs the risk of being cannibalized (books come to mind, to not even address the end of digital storage media). Good point, though, about Britain. <br /><br />I will have to read the Romance of the Three Kingdoms at some point. The contrast between East and West in terms of accepting a loss of competent leadership is a striking contrast. We do not have it in our collective psyche to assume that at some point, our civilization will lose its way and collapse.Leibowitz Societyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420328289777540352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-80626475306639221132012-07-16T11:24:43.906-07:002012-07-16T11:24:43.906-07:00Funny how we ascribe importance to numbers that ar...Funny how we ascribe importance to numbers that are completely arbitrary. We probably lose 100 or 2000 skill cells typing up a good reply. 100 or 2000 galaxies would be a real mess of matter.<br /><br />There is an argument to be said for not trying to recycle old ideas at some point, and letting new ones develop. However, we verge into a discussion about the validity Platonic realism at some point. <br /><br />Do we discover the same ideas over and over as they are a reflection of some "higher" ideal? Or is the existence of an idea a mutation in thought which is not necessarily guaranteed to exist again? Someone would point out that the notion of something so stupid as "humors" in the body would necessarily fall by the wayside at some point, but this would be contingent on the application of scientific research. Is the scientific method itself guaranteed to "re-develop?" It is already perilously endangered in modern American culture (the high number of people who still fall victim to the "gambler's fallacy" for example). <br /><br />Or, optionally, think of the emergence of Newton and Leibniz. Would we see two men such as these emerge from the dust of our modern civilization, or were they the expression of quantum tunneling as applied to the human intellect?<br /><br />I see, at this point, the understanding of people that we do not have a clear path out, wherever we go. The modern world is an unbalanced equation by most standards, regardless of what your take on it is. It is a question then, of whether or we are wearing a life vest, or building an ark, before the deluge hits. Most people will be trying to sit on top of their car as the waters rise.<br /><br />Cooperation in this sense seems to be a buffet. There is a wide variety to appeal to different people. I think my particular taste runs toward not paying any more attention to the spectacle than I have to, and thinking about what can be done to fix the future.Leibowitz Societyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420328289777540352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-11540809789260910602012-07-16T10:06:47.621-07:002012-07-16T10:06:47.621-07:00Thanks for the blog. I agree with the goal of try...Thanks for the blog. I agree with the goal of trying to salvage something during the collapse, but like yourself and Dmitri Orlov I've become more pessimistic as I see more of the strategy of the elites for the transition.<br /><br />I'm reading, and I recommend, the Romance of the Three Kingdoms in translation, and I think our situation is more similar to the numerous collapses of Chinese dynasties than of the Roman Empire. For one thing, the Roman elites actually "managed" their collapse better than the the norm, I think the perspective of English speakers is distorted by the fact that the collapse was worst in Britain. Second, ancient China really was a world unto itself, more so than Europe and the Mediterranean, so when the Han and later Jin went down the whole world went down. With the other end of Eurasia, Europe and the Middle East were related but followed differently timed rhythms of rise and fall.Ednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6702659934448838326.post-22544927066259449102012-07-16T07:22:35.544-07:002012-07-16T07:22:35.544-07:00Congrats at 100 - the Zone will hit 2000 posts som...Congrats at 100 - the Zone will hit 2000 posts sometime in early August. Existence, my RPG to define local food production and community skills is posted and 'frozen in time'. It has a nice story behind it, that i will tell once it doesn't hurt so much. One quantum jumps away from the zone - click there.<br /><br />The future will be exactly what we make it. Our mind-set determines what we do - attitude governs altitude. Do we really wish to protect this system that failed or can we move on to something new? The model says no - if you don't die with the most toys, you lose. But what if we cannot die?<br /><br />I am going to take the zone adrift - away from the world of 'bamamit' delusion and into the mines. As doc - a character from hi-ho, o-hi-o - we have a working model of a mining job that disappeared. Snow W. is the property caretaker, but she's busy watching the Kardashians and complaining about this JHK dude using bad naughty words. Little do they know how fractured the fairy tale can get.<br /><br />I am working on a new game - different from the old game. Problem is, ground is not the floor. How do we unlearn concepts that have been reenforce by everything we have 'watched' since Jack Benny defined - Well (sigh). I miss Groucho's duck - but that was b4 my time.<br /><br />So checking howdt is important and this dude lemme has more poems about how bad it really got - spinning down a fibonacci spiral and coming out at negative two. Happens when you lose your tether.<br /><br />Doc's mother-lode will be a new education system, based on entertainment and apprenticeship. We can 'team' up in the cooperative competition to survive - but remember - it is all self fulfilling prophesy and we reap what we sow.<br /><br />Glad that you are here on Mondays - JHK world is an early fractal and i stopped working on Occupy 8.0 to go deeper. Consider Project Restoration, come choose a clan. I believe in things that others cannot see, or hear, but can sense and feel, when the doors are unlocked. <br /><br />Have a key .. the Leibo-quest has begun. Gratis - because the economic model still needs work and i know you can help me, a mutual exchange. After all, we now live in a Higgs boson world - thyme for quantum thinking because lemme's avatar got howdt.<br /><br />and always - bee well, it helps to make your own honey. as HST once said - when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.lemme howdthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00405198300098336329noreply@blogger.com